PREDICTION: NEXT WEEK STEEL PRICES WILL RISE!

Affected by the collapse of the international financial market, the Black Department has weakened substantially, but the spot market has followed the decline to a limited extent. The traditional steel market demand season is coming, and the downstream terminal demand will gradually be released. Most businesses are more optimistic about the later market attitude, there is still support at the cost end of the stack, and the technical rebound facing the conch has given a certain boost to the spot. At the same time, the Central Bank has made a net investment of 230 billion yuan this week. Macro policies are favorable, and the RMB is still in the path of appreciation. The value of fixed assets is increasing, which is good for downstream investment, steel prices are expected to rise steadily next week. The Ministry of Commerce (mofcom) : In the first eight months of this year, the total foreign investment actually used in China totaled 619.78 billion yuan, up 2.6 percent year on year, according to the MOFCOM website, from January to August 2020, the total amount of foreign investment actually used nationwide was 619.78 billion yuan, up 2.6 percent year-on-year (equivalent to 89 billion US dollars, down 0.3 percent year-on-year; excluding banking, securities and insurance sectors, the same as below) . In August, foreign direct investment in China totaled 84.13 billion yuan, up 18.7 percent year-on-year (12.03 billion US dollars, up 15 percent year-on-year) . Renminbi loans increased by 1.28 trillion yuan in February and August, up 69.4 billion yuan from a year earlier, and by 1.28 trillion yuan in August, up 69.4 billion yuan from a year earlier, according to figures released by the Central Bank on September 11. In the sub-sector, loans to households increased by 841.5 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 284.4 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 557.1 billion yuan; loans to enterprises (institutions) increased by 579.7 billion yuan, of which short-term loans increased by 4.7 billion yuan and medium-and long-term loans increased by 725.2 billion yuan, note financing decreased by 167.6 billion yuan and loans to non-banking financial institutions decreased by 147.4 billion yuan. 3. Ministry of Ecology and Environment: The transformation of the steel industry into a super low emission industry is being carried out in an orderly manner, Zhao Yingmin, vice minister of the Ministry of Ecology and environment, said at the State Council's regular policy briefing, at present, the "scattered pollution" enterprises in key regions have basically completed their renovation. The transformation of the steel industry into a super-low emission plant is being carried out in an orderly manner. The coal-fired boilers in the built-up areas of cities have basically been eliminated, and the coal-fired power plants have also basically completed their transformation into a super-low emission plant, beijing-tianjin-hebei and its surrounding areas, as well as the fen-wei plain, have cumulatively completed the control of rural bulk coal in more than 18 million households. 2. On the spot market, construction steel: down, black series futures have continued to fall, transaction prices in the market are weak, businesses are more cautious, the high cost of steel billet is declining, businesses are weaker, and individual traders are under capital pressure, more to the low-level out of the main, but steel prices are willing to strong, low-selling willingness is not big, downstream demand gradually released, now traders are more cautious, and the cost still has support, is expected next week building materials prices or shocks go up. HOT ROLLED COIL: down, into the autumn, there is a rigid demand for construction sites, prices fell to a certain stage, downstream replenishment operations may increase, the market price is unlikely to continue to go down, at the same time, the northern environment has continued to limit production, there is also some support to the market price, the south rainy season is weakening, steel mills are willing to support prices, downstream project demand release gradually increased, is expected next week hot-rolled market prices or upward operation. Heavy and medium plate: down, add related big steel plant settlement price is on the high side, high-level buyers appear to be losing money, the original traditional "gold nine" high season bullish market, mentality was suppressed, traders bearish market spread, the medium and long term can still be expected, eleven small long holiday before a wave of replenishment market is expected next week plate prices or steadily rising operation. Strip steel: down, it is the peak season of Kim Koo, demand recovery is not as expected, the market mentality has changed, the operation is more cautious, environmental protection production restriction is strict, in October Beijing will hold a large-scale conference, at that time environmental protection will continue to be tightened, coupled with strong willingness of steel enterprises to support prices, the bottom of the market support there is still room for recovery, capital impact of the late market instability, market long-empty game, next week is expected to steel prices or shocks strong consolidation. PROFILE: Weak Shock, as the high temperature weather gradually eased, Kim Koo entered the peak season to the market confidence, but demand release is limited, and most of the rolling mills to resume production, late inventory shortage will gradually ease, in addition to strict production restrictions in autumn and winter, more and more work is being done, profile market is expected to be stable next week to emphasize the adjustment. Pipe material: stable in the fall, after the current extreme heat in the north, no heavy rain hit the south, the downstream terminal market has entered the stage of catching up with the project, but the demand is warmer and slower, the merchants are on the weak side, more flexible and wait-and-see, this week stable in the middle, the manufacturers are not hot, more hidden down shipments, according to the need to fill the library, in order to maintain stable operation, is expected next week or pipe market price will be slightly upward shocks. 3. In the raw material market, iron ore: stable but on the strong side, the general index is 130 High, plus the stock of the concentrator is low, businesses generally look forward to rising, in the week, the steel mill had no choice but to raise 20 yuan to make up the reserve, due to the increase in the price of the external mine, the billet fell, steel enterprises have heard price behavior, steel mills under high cost pressure, replenishment will not be strong, but still face replenishment just need before the holiday, Jinjiu market is still ready to rise, is expected next week iron ore market shock adjustment operation. SCRAP: down, finished products are currently subject to the pressure of excess supply, coupled with steel mills low profits, scrap peripheral support began to weaken. However, at present, after the scrap base and the traders have been shipping continuously, the inventory has started to decrease, and the quantity of goods arriving may fall back. In addition, the demand at the end of the steel mill will not decrease, and the demand for the National Day replenishment will be superimposed, so the decline in scrap steel will last for a relatively short time, scrap prices are expected to rise steadily next week. COKE: stable in the rise, the coke market has completed the second round to increase 50, various regions have been implemented, coke enterprises profit high, active start-up, few stocks in the plant, the coke market supply and demand two prosperous, more attention to environmental policy changes around the Taiyuan region and 4.3 meters coke oven capacity out of the situation, the coke market is expected to stay stable in the short term next week. PIG IRON: the main stable drop, the current weak steel market, ore consolidation operation, to pig iron rose somewhat restrained, but pig iron costs are still high, iron plant profits are low, and many iron plant to maintain negative inventory, strong support for iron prices, the pig iron market is expected to remain on the sidelines next week.