TWO SESSIONS TO BE HELD! HIGH-SPEED CHARGES! Steel prices to rise in May

The 13th session of the Standing Committee of the National People's Congress will be held on May 22,2020 in Beijing. The 17th session of the 13th session of the National People's Congress voted on May 29 to adopt a decision on the holding time of the 13th session of the National People's Congress. According to the decision, the third meeting of the 13th National People's Congress will be held in Beijing on May 22,2020. By analyzing the market performance one month before the two sessions, during the two sessions and one month after the two sessions since 2000, it was found that the market before and after the two sessions had gone up more than it had gone down, during the two sessions, it was characterized by vacillation. As the wind vane of the whole year's economy, the two sessions have always played an important role in guiding all aspects of the country's construction. The convening of the two sessions will clarify the central and local budgets and determine the scale of capital construction. Since the beginning of this year, new infrastructure projects have become the focus of the government's promotion. The market generally expects that new and old infrastructure projects will become an important issue to further unleash the benefits. In addition, the special anti-epidemic bonds received much attention, the size of the issue will be over trillion. Help boost confidence in the market. The impact of high-speed toll recovery, the Ministry of Transport News: From May 6,2020, the law approved toll road recovery toll (including toll bridges and tunnels) . High-speed charging means higher freight charges. On the one hand, from the point of view of steel mills, the increase in transportation costs will lead to an increase in the cost of raw materials and stock preparation, which will affect the total cost of steel mill production. On the other hand, for traders, high-speed charging will increase the cost of sales, and the willingness to push up prices will increase. In addition, high-speed charging also means that the country has entered the track of normalization of production and life, from the past phase of epidemic prevention and control and resumption of production parallel to the resumption of full start-up stage. May demand side, especially building materials demand is still strong support. May Trend forecast may inventory pressure is still relatively large, it is not good to get out of the market. The overall trend will be upward shocks; factors, good: 1. Overseas epidemic growth slowed, some European countries may lift the closure, ease domestic export pressure; 2. The two sessions were convened to boost policy and accelerate infrastructure investment. 3. After the full resumption of construction, construction sites have a phased rush situation, demand continued; 4. High-speed charging drives up transportation costs and supports steel prices. Bad News: 1. Overseas epidemic situation is not completely controlled, the impact on the manufacturing industry in the second quarter will be revealed, plate has an impact; 2. Steel Mills have room to increase production, preliminary estimates of five varieties of inventory to the same historical level also need 1.5 months to 2 months. CONCLUSION: Both supply and demand increase in May, the long strong continued weak, the first half of the strong shock, the second half of the delivery of futures after the supply increase there is a risk of decline. But the two sessions held hedging risks, the decline is limited. Overall in the macro-good and demand release, small upward shocks.